Tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico possible next week

As of now, it looks like rain chances will start to increase starting Tuesday-Friday with the increase in tropical moisture along the Gulf Coast. The GFS model takes the center of the system closer to the Florida panhandle, with numerous other models falling somewhere in the middle.

As days go by, chances for development will increase in the short term, meaning within days, then hours.

Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected over portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba, Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next several days. The strength of the system & positioning of two strong upper level high pressure areas will likely ultimately decide the path. Once data is collected from hurricane hunters, it can be plugged into forecast models to get a better idea of how this system may evolve.

There is another tropical wave out in the Atlantic that also has a high chance of developing within the next three to five days.


While the Euro keeps the possible tropical cyclone way to the south in the Gulf of Mexico and has it coming onshore near Brownsville, Texas. Much of the extended forecast will depend on the eventual development and track of the disturbance over the Caribbean we've been telling you about.

Forecast models continue to indicate the development of a weak tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico by early next week.

As of Sunday afternoon, the system remained unorganized, and a hurricane hunter flight scheduled to investigate the system was canceled.

The outlook for the 2017 season is expected to be an above average season. Expect low clouds and/or patchy fog once again to develop with lows in the 60s.

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